中国考虑调整计划生育政策
原始出处 : 华尔街日报中文网络版
中国正在考虑调整备受争议的计划生育政策,担心严厉的生育限制措施正在产生适得其反的效果,并可能导致社会动荡,损害经济发展。
一个专家小组向政府提议,最终废除大多数家庭只生一个孩子的严格限制,转而实施可以生两个孩子的宽松政策。
另外,政府也在今年年初任命了一个各部委工作小组,由三位高级官员牵头,250多位专家组成,专门研究人口增长趋势以及对经济的潜在影响。这个研究小组是由国家主席胡锦涛批准成立的,将研究人口数量、素质、老龄化,及性别比例等各种人口问题。
这是中国对实施多年的计划生育政策进行研究迈出的第一步。各级地方政府执行计划生育政策时,有时不免过于强硬,种种惩罚手段从高额罚款到强制堕胎,有时还会强制绝育。这些做法长期以来一直使中国的生育政策成为国际舆论谴责的焦点。
知情的专家和计划生育部门高级官员称,学者们提议的最终全面取消生育限制的计划必须坚持这样一个原则:放松现行的生育限制不会导致人口激增。中国目前人口总数约有13亿,为全世界之最。
“我们必须设计出一套过渡方案,这样就不会导致人口猛增,”上海社会科学院(Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences)副主任兼经济师左学金说。他很熟悉这个问题的讨论,他说,“整个社会都将从生育政策的调整中受益。”
在 中国,讨论这个问题一直是个禁忌。这25年来,中国人民基本上可以对自己的个人生活自行做出选择,但在执行计划生育政策这个问题上却要严格执行政府规定。 中国妇女的生育率已经从上世纪七十年代每位妇女一生生育七个孩子降到现在的不足两个孩子。计划生育这个国策不但提高了居民生活水平,也为经济改革的成功提 供了有力支持。参与辩论的学者们说,有些政治家和学者反对现在放松生育限制,现在还很难说是否会有调整,即使有也不会立即执行。
国家人口 和计划生育委员会(National Population and Family Planning Commission)政策法规司司长于学军表示,一个家庭两个孩子的政策更合适。但他也说,“(调整计划生育政策)对国家来说是个重大决策。”他还表 示,国家计划生育委员会在提出政策建议之前会谨慎行事。国务院(State Council)发言人拒绝予以置评。
但是现行政策一个难以 原谅的后果正督促政府重新考虑政策的执行。由于目前生育率普遍较低,人口老龄化给中国政府正带来日益沉重的负担。联合国(United Nations)估算数据显示,如果目前人口发展趋势不变,到2040年中国60岁及以上人口的数量将占总人口的28%,远高于目前的11%。退休人口不 断增加,而工作人口日益减少,资金一直严重不足的社会养老体系就会承受更大压力。左学金和其他经济学家说,已经在为退休生活大笔储蓄的中国人很可能会继续 增加储蓄并减少支出,而这正是导致日本最近一次经济低潮的罪魁祸首,这种趋势会导致整体经济投资和消费支出不足。
此外,适婚的男青年也会 遇到结婚难的问题。由于中国家庭传统上有看重男婴的风俗,以及超声波检测胎儿性别的普及,一些夫妇决定将女婴堕胎。根据2000年的普查数据,中国男婴和 女婴出生比例为117比100,远远高于国际正常水平105比100。不过,也有学者称,中国的男女婴实际比例之差可能会更小些,因为有些父母没有申报女 婴的出生。
据中国某社会科学家估算,截至2000年,年龄在15岁及以下的男童人数比女童多出1,880万人。有学者推测,十九世纪中国 人口的性别失衡(普遍溺杀女婴的结果)是推翻了清王朝统治的两次大规模起义的原因之一。国家主席胡锦涛在今年3月份一次广为报导的讲话中称,性别失衡是一个长期的社会隐患。
“中国成功地控制了人口增长。但后果是这一巨大扭曲将引发各种社会难题,”美国哈佛大学医学院(Harvard Medical School)社会医学讲师考夫曼(Joan Kaufman)说。
促 使政府考虑调整计划生育政策的另一个原因是民众普遍不欢迎的态度。政策的执行往往导致基层官员滥用职权,他们经常利用计划生育相关的罚款来敛财。例如,在 河南省宜阳县,据当地农民和报纸报导,县计划生育官员告知数十对夫妇政策允许生育多胎,然后又对他们施加高额罚款并强制堕胎。国际社会的普遍谴责也是原因 之一。国家人口和计划生育委员会在4月份发布的现行政策评估报告中表示,国际社会猛烈批评中国的计划生育政策,损害了中国的国际形象。
实 际上,由于遭到普遍敌视而进行的政策调整一直就在进行。1984年,政府放宽了允许生育二胎的标准;主要在农村地区推行。一些地方政府允许第一胎是女婴的 夫妇生育二胎,有些地方政府允许所有夫妇生育二胎。最近这10年间,计划生育部门的官员进行过多次试点,旨在缓解政策执行过程中的严厉苛刻行为和声名狼藉 的后果。例如,允许妇女不必事先申请指标就可以怀孕,向育龄妇女提供更多避孕选择,并加强生育健康教育等。
不过,目前的讨论远远超过这些 范围。一些社会学家今年年初向国家人口与计划生育委员会及国务院递交的提议就呼吁最终允许所有妇女生育二胎。建议还指出,率先在中国东部城市推行,那里的 经济发展速度和严厉的生育限制措施导致当地生育率普遍偏低。随后,再向中部、西部和农村地区推广。专家们建议的可供选择的办法之一就是,从2010年开 始,允许35岁及以上妇女生育二胎,此后每年降低一岁,例如2011年就允许34岁及以上妇女生育二胎,依此类推。
某知情人士透露,建议 指出,七十年代末开始的改革始于经济特区(Special Economic Zones)的建立,一对夫妇只生育一个孩子这项政策的松动应该从建立生育特区(Special Birth Policy Zones)开始。政府官员们可以先评估特区的效果,然后决定是否进行调整,之后再大范围推广。这位知情人士说,“几年内就可以做好这件事,届时就可以发 现问题并找到对策。”
最重要的是,经济学家和其他社会学家们认为,放松生育政策不会导致人口激增。这种担忧并不是没有根据的。1984年很多农村地区允许生育二胎以后,中国的人口出生率就曾大幅提高。这项调整也损害了积极执行一胎政策的基层官员的信誉。
学 者们认为,中国的现状已经迥然不同。生活水平的提高,尤其是城市地区生活水平提高,大批民工进入城市等因素削弱了人们对大家庭的期望。中国部分最富余的地 区,比如上海和北京的人口出生率就最低。由于抚养成本高昂,追求个人事业的发展,更好享受闲暇生活等种种原因,许多夫妇都放弃生育。人口统计学家、经济学 家和其他社会学家设计的电脑模型显示,即使允许所有夫妇生育二胎,中国妇女终生平均生育的数量仍会低于二。在这个水平上,人口自然更替不会出现增长。
左学金说,“人口不会出现爆炸式增长,生育率不会激增。”他并不是提出建议的专家小组成员之一,但对这份提议有大致的了解。
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